Climate-linked escalation of societally disastrous wildfires by Calum X. Cunningham, John T. Abatzoglou, Crystal A. Kolden, Grant J. Williamson, Markus Steuer and David M. J. S. Bowman, Oct 2, 2025, Science Vol 390, Issue 6768, pp. 53-58
DOI: 10.1126/science.adr5127
Editor’s summary
As climate warms and humans build in more undeveloped environments, the threat of costly wildfire disasters is thought to be increasing. Cunningham et al. examined data about the global distribution, frequency, and associated climate conditions of the most lethal and costly wildfire disasters from 1980 to 2023, finding that disaster risk was highest in regions near relatively affluent, populated areas, and that the frequency of economically disastrous wildfires increased sharply after 2015. They also found that major disasters coincided with extreme climatic conditions. —Jesse Smith
Abstract
Climate change and land mismanagement are creating increasingly fire-prone built and natural environments. However, despite worsening fire seasons, evidence is lacking globally for trends in socially and economically disastrous wildfires, partly due to sparse systematic records. Using a 44-year dataset (1980 to 2023) we analyze the distribution, trends, and climatic conditions connected with the most lethal and costly wildfires. Disastrous wildfires occurred globally over this period but were concentrated in the Mediterranean and temperate conifer biomes. Disaster risk was highest where highly energetic daily fire events intersected affluent, populated areas. Economic disasters increased sharply from 2015 onward, with 43% of the 200 most damaging events occurring in the last decade. Disasters coincided with increasingly extreme climatic conditions, highlighting the urgent need to adapt to a more fire-prone world.