@CaolanRob:
Trumps envoy Witkoff is putting out insane FSB propaganda that Ukraine wants to be part of Russia.
I’m travelling to the eastern frontlines now to show the actual truth – that Ukranians are fighting every day to get Russia OUT of their country.
@SharonBurnabyBC:
Trump is also saying the same lies about Canada. That we want to be the 51st state of the USA. Completely ridiculous.
Indeed, and Trumpski calling us their “precious” when all they want to do is rape and murder us, so as to steal our resources and lands, just like genocidal wanted war criminals, Putin in Ukraine and Netanyahu in Palestine.
Slava Ukraini! #Canada supports #Ukraine!
@CaolanRob:
Trumps team is full of freeloading government welfare leeches & NEPO babies.
Even Musk received billions in government loans just to keep his businesses afloat.
Pure projection from freeloader junkies in the White House.
Russian strikes show Moscow does not want ‘real peace’, says Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president said drone attacks just hours after ceasefire talks were ‘a clear signal to the whole world’ by Dan Sabbagh in Kyiv, 26 Mar 2025, The Guardian
Ukraine’s president has accused Russia of being insincere about moving towards peace as he reported an attack by 117 drones, just a day after both countries had agreed to a maritime ceasefire subject to Moscow obtaining agricultural sanctions relief.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that launching nationwide strikes after the peace negotiations was proof of Russia’s true intentions, though the Kremlin insisted the US-brokered talks were proceeding constructively.
Four people were reported killed and six injured across Ukraine by regional governors overnight, while the country’s air force said it shot down 56 of the 117 incoming drones and another 48 were decoys that caused no damage.
“Last night, there were another 117 proofs in our skies of how Russia continues to drag out this war,” Zelenskyy posted on X. “Launching such large-scale attacks after ceasefire negotiations is a clear signal to the whole world that Moscow is not going to pursue real peace.”
Russia’s defence ministry countered by saying that Ukraine had sought to strike Russian energy facilities overnight, targeting a gas storage site in occupied Crimea and electricity transmission in the border region of Bryansk.
“Thus, the Kyiv regime, while continuing to damage the Russian civilian energy infrastructure, is actually doing everything it can to thwart the agreements reached” by negotiators from Russia and the US, the Russian ministry said, though it was not immediately possible to verify the claims.
Parallel talks between Russia and the US and the US and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia this week had reached agreement on implementing a ceasefire in the Black Sea and a 30-day halt to strikes on energy targets already agreed to in principle by the Ukrainian and Russian leaders.
But the Kremlin emphasised that its agreement to a ceasefire was conditional on the US helping ease access to its exports of food and fertiliser, and the reconnection of state agricultural bank Rosselkhozbank to the Swift payments system. The US said it was studying the Russian request.
At a briefing on Wednesday, Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, praised the talks. “We are satisfied with how pragmatically and constructively our dialogue is developing and by how it is yielding results,” he said.
A list of Russian and Ukrainian targets to be covered by the energy moratorium had been agreed with the help of US negotiators, Peskov added, a point that had been announced by Zelenskyy the day before. Ukraine’s leader said the energy ceasefire should be ready to come into force from today.
Donald Trump has been pressing for a full end to the fighting in Ukraine, declaring on the campaign trail before his election that he could end the war in 24 hours, though earlier this month he described his own statement as “a little bit sarcastic”.
So far the parallel negotiations that took place in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, have brought relatively modest results – and raised questions over whether a full ceasefire is possible given the lack of trust between Moscow and Kyiv and ongoing fighting.
Overnight, the US president even questioned whether Putin was committed to a peace deal at this stage. “I think that Russia wants to see an end to it, but it could be they’re dragging their feet,” Trump said in a TV interview.
“I’ve done it over the years, you know; I don’t want to sign a contract, I want to sort of stay in the game, but maybe I don’t want to do it, quite … I’m not sure. But no, I think Russia would like to see it end, and I think Zelenskyy would like to see it end at this point,” he told Newsmax.
Ukraine’s strategy is to engage constructively in the talks, showing it is ready to agree to intermediate ceasefire proposals, and switch the onus on peace to Russia in the belief the Kremlin will raise more pre-conditions.
Moscow, however, appears focused on what it can obtain from the US, with Trump acknowledging the US had had discussions about a division of Ukrainian territory with the Kremlin. No such negotiations had been had with Ukraine, Zelenskyy said on Tuesday.
@CaolanRob:
Never trust a word Russia says
mark dickinson:
Yes. In 30 years of diplomacy I never saw anything like this (from anyone). I can’t see the EU going along with this. The long-term costs to the US are huge (even if we can minimise the short-term costs to Ukraine).
Phillips P. OBrien:
I really hope you are right about European states and the EU on this. I oscillate pretty regularly between thinking they understand the reality, but then seeing how desperate some of them are to work with TrumpCan’t fix cowardliness or stupidity or greed, notably not if rape religious.
Andrew Pavelyev:
I doubt that the Europeans will agree to lift sanctions. They know that if Russia becomes stronger, they can’t rely on the US for protection, especially in the Baltics. Besides, don’t they need unanimity for lifting sanctions? It’s hard to imagine Estonia (or Poland) agreeing.Well, they’ll be illegally invaded by Putin next, if Europe goes along with this monstrous treachery.
Norbert Bollow:
I think that a pretty reasonable theory of Trumpism is that Trump aspires to become a powerful mafia state boss like Putin (whom he obviously admires) and that there are intelligently evil people around him (not that it takes much to look intelligent in comparison to Trump) who are quite intentional and strategic about wanting to turn the US into a fascist state with themselves part of the ruling cabal, and to transform the world as a whole in the direction of fascist mafia states being the accepted norm rather than the exception.
If this assessment of Trumpism is correct, that implies not only that the Trumpist government will want to strengthen Russia and end the sanctions regime; it also implies that the Trumpist government can be expected to be willing to pay almost any diplomatic price for achieving that objective, as long as things can somehow be spun within MAGAland as Trump having achieved a “great deal”.
Even if in Western European capitals my “theory of Trumpism” may not be widely known or accepted (yet?), I’m sure that people are seeing and understanding enough to understand at least intuitively that going in any way along with what the US is now pushing for would be very much against democratic values and against European interests.
Andrew Pavelyev:
One problem with their calculations is that they overestimate American power and don’t understand that they can’t pressure the Ukrainian nation into ceasing to exist.
Norbert Bollow:
Indeed. Paul Krugman recently wrote something along the lines of many Americans (I think he was thinking of Trumpists primarily) not really believing that any country truly exists besides the US and perhaps Russia and China.
In their eyes it is impossible for European countries to significantly help Ukraine, and impossible for Ukraine to continue resisting Russia in the absence of continued US support.
Andrew Pavelyev:
We just saw that attitude in the chat. Of course, they also overrate Russia.
Rose Mason:
Agree. A good 90-95% of the articles I read every day are from international newspapers. Trump voters don’t pay attention to foreign affairs, and they think the US is more powerful than it really is. For example, several years ago Trump blamed Obama for kicking Russia out of the G8, and said that would never have happened had he been president, and Trump supporters believe that sort of thing. But Obama couldn’t have done that alone. Similarly, Trump wouldn’t be able to get Russia reinstated by himself.
And that’s just one example.
Ed Pethick:
Lifting early, yes I think so. Just not re-implementing when they expire and come back around it’s the opposite, this gives enormous cover for Hungary to play its game.
Richard Burger:
My sense is that most analysts and leaders across the west are open to seeing Trump find a final deal and are open to lifting sanctions. I would anally extract a 75% figure. A good share.of that 75% is grudging acceptance.
The lifting of sanctions was assumed to be a year after a full peace deal, IMO. The flippant lifting of sanction based on a rickety partial ceasefire is probably a shocking development even to Tulsi Gabbard.
The sanction lift is not happening as others explained. At worst it is a demoralizing ordeal. At best it will be a useful 1000th wakeup call to Euro leaders and pundits.
Norbert Bollow:
Western Europe has for so many decades outsourced so much of its strategic thinking to the US that the capacity of our governments for strategic thinking and for taking corresponding actions has atrophied. Starting to think strategically independently of the US is scary! It’s so much easier to simply make some good speeches and hope that things are somehow not so bad and can be waited out.
Norbert Bollow:
Bad news, but absolutely not surprising. We fully expected such a betrayal to come. We didn’t know the exact details, and they may still be fluent to some degree (almost certainly what is possible for the US to do unilaterally will move in the direction of what Trump and Putin both want), but we knew enough that a betrayal by the US was certainly to be expected.
Phillips P. OBrien:
I don’t think everyone had accepted that Norbert (though most of the readers here were smart enough to have done so).
Norbert Bollow:
Yes, the “we” in my comment above is in reference to the community of your readers —we knew because we were more well-informed than most through your writings. Most others, including many Western European politicians, may still need significant further cluestick-poking before a shared understanding can arise of just how far the US has moved to the dark side under its current government.
Roseanna Cunningham:
Clue-stick poking? That’s a first for me. Graphic though. I may appropriate it for further wider use
Philip MINNS:
Thanks for this clear exposition of what is clearly the epitome of duplicity and a betrayal of Ukraine. The ball is now in the European court as only Europe can allow Russian banks back into SWIFT. Zelenskyy will be in Paris this evening. We hold our breath !
Alexandre Plennevaux:
Scandalous but we knew there would be a point where the situation would come to this and the strategy of letting the so-called ceasefire process drag along as long as possible would need to end. What’s on the table is just not acceptable for Ukraine.
The time has come for Ukraine and Europe+ to say “no, thank you”. Let’s see if the Europeans were posturing all this time since Munich or if they really meant it. A defining moment of truth.
Norbert Bollow:
Yes. A reasonable path forwards might consist in Zelenskyy coordinating the rejection with the most powerful nations of Europe, so that it’s not just Ukraine rejecting the deal, but Ukraine and much of Europe together explaining quite clearly why accepting that “deal” would be extreme stupidity.
Alexandre Plennevaux:
Scandalous but we knew there would be a point where the situation would come to this and the strategy of letting the so-called ceasefire process drag along as long as possible would need to end. What’s on the table is just not acceptable for Ukraine.
The time has come for Ukraine and Europe+ to say “no, thank you”. Let’s see if the Europeans were posturing all this time since Munich or if they really meant it. A defining moment of truth.
Norbert Bollow:
Yes. A reasonable path forwards might consist in Zelenskyy coordinating the rejection with the most powerful nations of Europe, so that it’s not just Ukraine rejecting the deal, but Ukraine and much of Europe together explaining quite clearly why accepting that “deal” would be extreme stupidity.
whatnext:
It’s the perfect time for Europe to show leadership. What with Trump’s “national security team” shown to be a gang of bumbling idiots.
With the conference call fiasco, plus Witkoff’s Putin meat ride on the Carlson show, so fresh in the news, it’s time for Europe to call Trump out. “Why is he so cozy with Putin? Stop being coy and call this out.” Maybe Ursula can ask this, loud and simple. Maybe Macron. We can dream.
I’ve had MAGA loyalists question this. Why is Trump so cozy with Putin? Why is he giving Putin everything he wants? Putin is still very unpopular in the US, even among most Republicans.
Easy answer, it’s been known for years by those who choose to read, think and believe for themselves, instead of swallow Orange Lies:
Cubicle Farmer:
As a Canadian, I found this part worrying: “This deal is less about maritime security and more about easing sanctions on Russia—conveniently timed as global demand for fertilizers surges, and with Russia poised to replace Canada as a primary supplier to the U.S. That’s the real motive.“
Canadians have been thinking to themselves about whether we’re actually going to need to exercise our points of leverage with the US, and impose export taxes (or even export controls) on critical minerals, energy, and critical agricultural exports like potash. Looks like US has anticipated that and is getting ready to play hardball with us.
Roseanna Cunningham:
Ach, it is all so depressing. No sooner do you get over one outrage than another appears.
I hope and pray that ‘Europe’ does just refuse to go along with this. Even if that does happen, whether it will include the UK Government is less certain – Starmer is trying so hard to balance on the tightrope that my instinct is he’ll try to craft some ‘on the one hand, but on the other’ position that is ultimately meaningless.Great description of synergy and synergizers that blather both sides shit to make sure frac harms continue unimpeded!
Put bluntly though, in my view unless it is resisted now an American/Russian axis of the nature of what we’re seeing develop means only one thing in the future – and that’s a really stark thought (albeit previously unthinkable)
I was never a pacifist. I did not expect to become such a hawk in my later years
Norbert Bollow:
Yes, Giving in to blackmailing is not a path that leads to peace; it’s a path that leads to being subjected to even bigger demands.
Piotr Szafranski:
In a bigger picture, Europe is about to confront the logical result of not smashing Russia face down into the mud in 2014 after Crimea annexation.
Note how smart/rational Trump is (as much as I hate this): as Europe continued business as usual with Russia after the Crimea annexation (Nord Stream 2!), Trump has rational reasons to believe that he can annex Greenland and NOTHING will happen.
For zillions of reasons, pragmatic and emotional, responding effectively against American annexation of Greenland would be WAY more costly and hard for Europe than it would be against Russia for her Crimea grab.
Then, there are some islands in the Atlantic which fly Portuguese, Spanish or British flags. “It cannot happen”? Are you sure?
And then there are Norwegian islands in the Arctic. And so on. The logic is cruel.In my experience, most humans are unbearable cowards, thus why thieving genocidiares like Israel, USA, Russia, China, Germany got/get away with their mass murdering crimes. Add religion, and one gets a satanic cowardly raping species that rejects critical thinking and reason.
Dr Andrew Craig:
Ukraine must reject this double-dealing “deal”. It is typical Trump. Stiffing anyone he can and kowtowing to Putin’s penis waving. Trump is as utterly untrustworthy and duplicitous as Putin is. Europeans must understand that and stop wistfully hoping against hope that the mafia boss will be cooperative. He won’t be. Because it isn’t in his interests and his cronies interests to do that. Have we learned nothing so far?
Thomas M. Conroy:
Bloomberg, in a paywalled story today, is reporting that Russian explosives manufacturers use fertilizer companies to avoid sanctions.
Andrew Pavelyev:
I don’t know if Trump will push it through. Apart from the European reaction, now is not a good time for him to irritate hawkish Republican senators who are already very unhappy about the Signal chat affair and may start a real investigation (while their donors are privately complaining to them about the market rollercoaster over tariffs). Some senators are not up for re-election until 2030, and by that Trump may not even be alive (or at least in decent mental shape).
Norbert Bollow:
I’d fully expect Trump to push things to the point where he and his acolytes can claim that he made “a great deal”.
I don’t think that he’s paying that much attention to senators.
That said, I’d be very relieved if it turns out that you’re right that “now is not a good time for him to irritate” them, and that he’s overplaying his hand at last!
Andrew Pavelyev:
As Trump himself and Bill Clinton demonstrated with their impeachment trial acquittals, a president can get away with a lot in a good economy. But Nixon resigned when the impeachment articles were merely adopted in a committee because the economy was bad. I think Trump became even more arrogant after surviving two impeachments, criminal charges and two assassination attempts, and then won the popular vote.
The rational thing would have been for him to use the cover of excellent economy he inherited to do other things that he wanted, especially actually popular things like deportations and ending wokeness and DEI, while also indulging his foreign policy desires like aligning with Putin. Instead he quickly started indulging his crackpot economic ideas about tariffs, and on top of that unleashed DOGE chaos. That sank his popularity not only with voters but also with Republican donors. And with that in the background, he plunged ahead with his pro-Russian policies, sometimes doing that in a publicly heavyhanded way, e.g. in his meeting with Zelensky. I think he is indeed overplaying his hand (not unusual for second term presidents, but much worse in his case).
Paul M Sotkiewicz:
Even without sanctions lifting, it hurts Ukraine in that they will have won a great battle to push the Russians to the side in the Black Sea only to have ceded it back to what is left of the Black Sea fleet.
Andrew Pavelyev:
Yes, it does. But if (or rather when) the ceasefire breaks down, they will have some more targets for their USVs. If Putin is actually stupid enough to send ships back to Sevastopol.
john king:
Trump would rather play golf and act the celebrity ruler, while enriching himself freely from every transaction. As the old Mafia saying goes, “the boss has to get a taste from everything that happens.” Trump uses the unqualified lackeys he has placed in powerful positions to do the dirty work, but also to take the fall when things go wrong. This arrangement provides Trump with a patsy to lay the blame on, but also gives them his reassurances of a presidential pardon, in the event of any legal culpability
Trump is fully in bed with Putin and has a fawning admiration for both the Russian ruler and the methods used to control dissent in that country. He has bent over backward to ensure a favourable result for Russia in the peace negotiations with Ukraine. His current cease fire proposal allows the U.S. to resume trade with Russia and lift sanctions. it is a betrayal of Ukraine pure and simple.
Paul M Sotkiewicz:
There is an old Roosevelt quote about this, “The hand that held the dagger has struck into the back of its neighbor” that seems appropriate here. After the Signal chat and now this, will Europe be convinced they are being sold out and need to stand up for themselves? I am frankly shocked at Ukraine allowing itself to be put in a corner like this and I cannot see how accepting this sham of a cease fire works for them. If anything it allows the Russians to sail the Black Sea unimpaired and could shut down Ukrainian shipping. Putin get out of Trump what was lost in battle.
Andrew Pavelyev:
I assume they feel they must humor Trump as long as possible, while Europe is rearming, Russian economy is deteriorating and Russian equipment stocks are declining. Right now there’s not much for them to do in the Black Sea.
Jonathan Vernon-Hunt:
Thanks Prof. There is now so much writing on the bloody wall that the wall is no longer visible. Starmer, you are good emough egg but COME ON, say something !!!!
Arent:
Well it seems that the EU won’t lift any sanctions as long as Russia doesn’t retreat. Tonight Macron and Zelensky are having a working dinner, tomorrow the coalition of willing will meet in Paris, without the USA https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20250326-paris-receives-coalition-of-the-willing-to-talk-about-support-for-ukraine). So basically, we’re already seeing the EU vs USA/Russia in this specific context of negotiations, with Ukraine and also the UK somewhere in the middle. Despite all the palavers the war continues, there will be no cease-fire until the Kremlin backs down. And that’s not going to happen anytime soon. It’s better to prepare for the Russian summer offensive in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. That’s one of the certainties of Russian warfare, there will always be an offensive somewhere.
but COME ON, say something !!!!
Hari Prasad:
We all know that Trump has long been in Putin’s pocket. The Russian mafia has always been an arm of the state. During three decades from the mid-1980s, over a billion dollars was laundered in Trump’s real estate. Putin intervened to help Trump win the 2016 election. Just before the 2024 election, he spoke often on the phone with Trump and Musk, surely not about the weather. Trump now has to deliver.
In his first term, the priority, as the Russian agent Mike Flynn informed the Russian ambassador, was to remove the sanctions imposed in the Obama administration. Those had been imposed for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and annexation of the Crimea in 2014. Since Trump didn’t yet dominate Congress, the sanctions stayed in place. Biden’s term brought tighter and wider sanctions after Putin launched his full-scale invasion in 2022. Russia is now on the ropes. Naturally, Putin’s most pressing need is to have sanctions lifted. He has used Trump to get to that objective with the appearance of an agreement in which he has conceded nothing. Bin Salman of Saudi Arabia is no honest broker. He is a co-investor with Putin and Netanyahu in Trump’s presidency, a partner in the consortium which owns Trump and includes Elon Musk and Peter Thiel in America. What is not clear is if European partners of Ukraine can see through the smokescreen of propaganda to the danger making its way to them once Ukraine has been tamed and “swallowed.” This is the first step. Trump is Putin’s partner, and Ukraine’s and Europe’s enemy.
john king:
Trump would rather play golf and act the celebrity ruler, while enriching himself freely from every transaction. As the old Mafia saying goes, “the boss has to get a taste from everything that happens.” Trump uses the unqualified lackeys he has placed in powerful positions to do the dirty work, but also to take the fall when things go wrong. This arrangement provides Trump with a patsy to lay the blame on, but also gives them his reassurances of a presidential pardon, in the event of any legal culpability
Trump is fully in bed with Putin and has a fawning admiration for both the Russian ruler and the methods used to control dissent in that country. He has bent over backward to ensure a favourable result for Russia in the peace negotiations with Ukraine. His current cease fire proposal allows the U.S. to resume trade with Russia and lift sanctions. it is a betrayal of Ukraine pure and simple.
Tom Biondo:
A 12 year old could have brokered this take it or leave it deal. It is blackmail by any other name.
I will go further by calling the next four years “The Great American Hole” as history will depict the period as one void of intellect and morality. One can also personify the title.
Stephen ONeill:
Perfidious United States! There is a time coming in the US when the people will be forced to choose what side they stand on with all that implies.
Spencer Weart:
Once again, better journalism (than the mighty New York Times et al. could manage. More facts, better analysis.
Patrick guest:
So how does Ukraine navigate the Trump quagmire to their advantage?
Trump does not care about true peace; all he really cares about is the adulation of his fan base and that he can claim that he has done what no one else can. He promised “peace” in Ukraine and now needs to deliver a peace of his own definition. None of his fans or apostles care about the terms, cost or future implications of that peace. The only definition that matters is that the guns stop firing somewhere, which only Putin can deliver, so he can claim Peace.
And Putin is giving him a path to claim peace on his terms – a ceasefire on energy infrastructure or a ceasefire in the Black Sea. If Trump can claim this as peace, then mission accomplished. The problem Zelensky has is that he is not playing the “right” card game, which is how to manipulate Trump’s ego into believing he has negotiated peace to Ukraine’s advantage – however cynical that peace is.
How can Ukraine do this, given its constraints? Is the best option to say yes to every ceasefire and wait for (or provoke Russia) into quickly breaking it to embarrass Trump’s ego? Is this what they are doing? Contrast this with Gaza where apparently Trump is negotiating directly with Hamas, which then led Israel to break the peace…
In general Mark Carney is showing the path as to how to deal with Trump. Respond quietly and don’t make noise that Trump can make a spectacle of. But most importantly, accept the world has changed and get on with the new reality (skate to where the puck is going).
Much harder for Ukraine of course.
Jonathan Brown:
I’d always feared that Trump would repeal sanctions, even in the absence of a ceasefire. If this proposal is implemented, can Trump actually do it? Or rather, could the Europeans do anything to stop it having any impact?
I’m aware that it’s the US government that banks around the world really fear, which is why the EU’s attempt to circumvent US sanctions on Iran basically failed. Does it work the other way around? If the EU keeps sanctions on Russia, would that mean in practice that banks continued to avoid dealing with Russian banks even though the US was no longer preventing it?
Mark Grindlay:
I thought I saw Russia announce it was deploying something (missile cruiser, I think) to the Black Sea while this was being ‘negotiated’, would that have been a factor in the Ukrainian thinking at the time?
whatnext:
Russia can’t bring any large warships into the Black Sea that aren’t already there, so I don’t see how this would influence the Ukrainians one way or the other.
Paul M Sotkiewicz:
The Turks control the Bosporus and will not allow new military vessels through. Unless the Russians have built a new missile cruiser of which we are not aware, this deal makes no sense.
Norbert Bollow:
Exactly. The deal makes no sense. That’s the whole point:
If the “deal” is accepted, Putin gets something that he wants (weakening of the sanctions) — and that Trump wants to give him — for essentially nothing, while this can be spun in MAGAland as Trump having done a “great deal”.
Zelenskyy can reject the “deal”, but that’ll make him look bad in the eyes of Europeans who haven’t been paying enough attention, and —worse— it’ll give Trump a much-coveted excuse for punishing Ukraine for rejecting the “deal”, while that can be spun in MAGAland as Trump bring a “strong leader”.
It’s pure mafia statism on the part of the US: It’s terrible for Ukraine to say yes, but the mafia state is pressuring them to say yes anyway with a threat of making the situation still much more terrible for them if they say no.
Pierre Bigras:
Beyond the treachery this actually makes no economic sense. The only plausible explanation is the Useful Idiot theory. There was a lot of anecdotal evidence going around during Trump’s first term, now not so much…
Adrian Kent:
Please don’t bleat about freedom and democracy in Europe when Ursula VDL plans to use Article 122 to funnel cash to your MIC spfonsors.
The headline for this piece is as apt as it is ironic and it’s refreshing to see you use it at last. It’s the position you’ve been peddling from the Summer of 2023 when the AFU Summer Offensive turned out to be the disaster that it was always going to be.
But this version of the stab in the back narrative is as much of a myth now as it was for the Germans between the wars. I’m sure the Banderites in the remaining rump Ukraine will be all over it in the coming years – and they’ll have you to quote when they do so. Well done you.
Jonas Idinger:
Just a thought. Maybe the partial ceasefire is not so bad for Ukraine for one reason. Russia will break it as usual. It is in their blood, they will violate any agreement. This means it will be obvious who is to blame and maybe the US administration will recognize that Russia does not want peace. I am aware that this might be false hope
Adrian Kent:
Which agreements have they broken specifically?
Norbert Bollow:
Here’s a big one: https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%203007/Part/volume-3007-I-52241.pdf
Ukraine Was Just Knifed In The Back by Phillips P. OBrien, March 26, 2025, Phillips’s Newsletter
And The Ukrainians Know It
Hi All,
An update on the big story of last night—which reveals the real peril that Ukraine and Europe find themselves in when dealing with the Trump Administration.
Yesterday the US and Russia can only be said to have brutally outmaneuvered the Ukrainians (and Europeans) and placed them on the horns of dilemma. The “Black Sea Ceasefire” as it is being called, was negotiated by the USA in one way with Ukraine and then another way with Russia. The result is that unless Ukraine now rejects it, or if Europe comes to its aid and does not agree to its sanctions busting terms—Russia will be handed a huge win and Ukraine will find itself in a more perilous position.
I’ve been trying to find out from some Ukrainians that I trust what happened, and here is my best estimate based on what I have found.
First: The US and Ukraine negotiated about a Black Sea Ceasefire on its own (no strings attached). The Ukrainians were not wild about it—as they have in many ways already achieved many of its goals on their own. The Ukrainians have already cleared the the Russian Black Sea Fleet from almost all of the Black Sea and forced it out of Crimea into Russia. At the same time, the Ukrainians have opened up shipping out of Odesa, and are now utilizing the port successfully to ship out grain, etc.
The US, however, put great pressure on the Ukrainians to agree to the Black Sea Ceasefire for a few reasons. It was said that it would be a sign of Ukrainians willingness to make peace, that it would keep the US happy, that it would restrict Russian attacks from the Black Sea on Ukraine itself, and that it would provide further security for commercial shipping from Ukrainian ports. Then there was the kicker—clearly the US told Zelensky that if Ukraine agreed to the ceasefire and the Russians violated it, that this would trigger much greater US sanctions on Russia.
How do we know this last point? Well, Zelensky came out and said it openly—that Ukraine would want more US weapons and harsher sanctions on Russia if the Russians broke the agreement.
In the end, the US and Ukrainians reached an agreement on a ceasefire that seems to have been limited and had no special relief or benefits for Ukraine (nor Russia). Here is the White House statement on the US agreement with Ukraine—its pretty simple.
Second: While the US was negotiating one Black Sea ceasefire with the Ukrainians (above) they were negotiating a very different one with the Russian. We might say this is the one that really reflects the Trump administration’s views. The US was agreeing as part of the ceasefire to work with Russia to weaken (perhaps fatally) the sanctions regime now in place against the Russian state.
Here is a picture of the whole White House statement on what the US agreed with Russia (its very different from the above statement about the talks with Ukraine). Now, the US is going very far to help Russia, and is agreeing as part of the ceasefire to bust sanctions on Russia as soon as it can. The second bullet point is the killer one.
This agreement would basically drive a coach and horses through the present sanctions regime. Any Russian company that claimed to be working in “agricultural and fertilizer” products would be allowed to ship goods in and out of Russia (and I’m sure the security protocols will be almost non-existent). Moreover, to do this, the US seemed to be willing to plug Russia back into the world financial system (“enhance access to…payment systems for such transactions…”). This is a bland way of saying something momentous. Russia should be accepted back into world banking, insurance, etc.
Its hard to state the depth of these US concessions to Russia—and the fact that the US is clearly happy with these concessions.
Third. The US announced the ceasefire to great fanfare—Trump is bringing peace to the world! However only then did it become apparent that there was the conditional agreement with Russia that the US had agreed on the side and that the Russians were expecting this to be implemented soon as part of the ceasefire. The Russian statement to this affect was clear and unambiguous.
The US has so far not backed away from the deal its brokered with Russia—and this means that the ball is in the Ukrainians court and now they must either break with the USA or accept a deal that could be a huge win for Russia. It took a while for the Ukrainians to accept the reality of the box into which Trump and Putin had maneuvered them. However, during the course of last night—that reality became very apparent. Here is just one taster—a Ukrainian MP, Oleksandra Ustinova on Substack. She says in her biography that she is an adviser to the Defense Department and I’ve been told she has very good links with Defense Minister Umerov. You might not know of her as she has very few followers, but you should pay attention to what she says about the Black Sea ceasefire as she wrote a forensic piece about how the agreement was a “betrayal” of Ukraine.
Ukraine Sacrificed: U.S.-Russia Agreement in Saudi Arabia Lifts the Veil on Broken Promises
Here is how it starts.
It is very difficult to see Ustinova writing this if the Ukrainian government did not understand now how it had been betrayed.
Fourth. This deal stinks and would be a huge win for Russia if it were implemented. A few things might happen. The Trump administration, having crafted it with Putin, might get cold feet and not push to implement it over the heads of the Ukrainians and Europeans. That would be best—but don’t put too much hope on Trump not working with Putin.
If the US-Russian end of the deal stands, then Ukraine will be left either taking the deal or walking away. It can walk away, if European states back it. The participation of Europe will be needed to bust the sanctions (unless the US decides to just ally with Russia fully and openly). However, this will require some real fortitude and determination by European states to stand up to the USA.
Regardless, the last day (including the Atlantic Story I wrote about on Monday) has once again confirmed where we are.
The US is now trying to subvert Ukraine (and Europe) and work with Russia. The US wants to end the sanctions as soon as possible and start making money with Russia. It cares nothing about the success of freedom and democracy in Europe/Ukraine and actually seems to wish to undermine both if possible.
It is up to Ukraine and EuropeAnd Greenland, and Panama, and Canada now to look after themselves. The Black Sea ceasefire deal is screaming that loudly.
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Ukraine ceasefire deal looks like a Russian wishlist tied with a US bow by Andrew Roth in Washington, Mar 26, 2025, The Guardian
The Kremlin is pressing its advantage with a White House that is impatient to show that Donald Trump is the only leader who can deliver peace in the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine.
At first blush, the deal agreed by US negotiators in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday offers concession on concession to the Kremlin, leaving observers to question whether Russia had given anything to secure its first offer of sanctions relief since the beginning of the war.
Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a moratorium on attacking each other’s ships in the Black Sea – a theatre of the war where Ukraine’s use of seaborne drones and special operations units had put the Russians on the defensive, largely penning the Russian fleet close to the shore.
2022-04-17: Morten Morland cartoon, Ukraine sinks Russia’s Moskva. Slava Ukraini.
But the White House account of the agreement did not even include the fine print. In its readout, the Kremlin said that it would only implement the Black Sea ceasefire once the US delivers sanctions relief on Russian agricultural products and fertilisers, as well as delisting a major state-owned bank called Rosselkhozbank that services the Russian agricultural industry.
That would be the first significant rollback of sanctions on Russia since the war began, and indicates that Moscow will seek a dual price to halt its war against Ukraine: political and military concessions from Ukraine as well as an escape from the international isolation that began after its full-scale invasion in 2022.
And, so far, it looks like that is a deal that the Trump administration is willing to make.
“The ‘Russian art of the deal’ is selling Russian demands as Russian concessions to the Americans, and then demand sanctions relief on top,” wrote Dr Janis Kluge, a researcher who focuses on the Russian economy at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, a thinktank. “The demand here is that Ukraine is not allowed to attack Russian warships any more and Russia gets to inspect Ukrainian ships.”
Any sanctions relief on Russia will be limited by the readiness of Europe to take similar steps – but Tuesday’s deal still reflects a serious reorientation of the diplomacy around Ukraine and leaves Europe more isolated in restraining Russia.
Ukraine had opposed any rollback on sanctions against the Kremlin. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that he considered it to be a “weakening of our position and the easing of sanctions” against Russia, a position that was not compatible with an “unconditional ceasefire” against energy infrastructure and at sea.
It also appears that either the White House hid the plans to ease sanctions – or US negotiators were themselves surprised by the Russian demand that limits on trade and finance be eased in order to achieve the main deliverable that the White House wants: the ability to declare even a partial ceasefire in Ukraine.
“This wasn’t in the agenda before the meeting,” Zelenskyy said on Tuesday. “The Russians, as far as we know, have raised the issue of the American assistance to transport their agricultural products … We didn’t agree to that so that it would be in our common [statement].”
Zelenskyy sought to sound upbeat during his remarks, and said that at least now Kyiv could appeal to the White House if Russia chose to violate the ceasefire against Ukraine in the coming month. Ukraine could also demand new sanctions against Russia if that happens, he said.
But there are considerable doubts that Trump would be ready to slap further sanctions on Russia. And Steve Witkoff, his envoy, has spent “really a lot of time in dialogue with Putin”, said Zelenskyy, explaining why the White House messaging on the war sounds so much like the Kremlin narrative.
In negotiations, a deal that does not work for both sides will collapse sooner or later. Tuesday’s agreement – and the separate statements that have emerged – will raise further questions of whether the US can mediate a conflict in which it appears to clearly sympathise with the Kremlin.