Some sea life could face extinction over the next century, Pioneering research shows sea life will struggle to survive future global warming by Ashwini Sakharkar, 13 Nov, 2024, Tech Explorist
A recent study emphasizes that certain marine species could face potential extinction within the next century if human-induced global warming continues to escalate. Conducted by the University of Bristol, this research for the first time examines how tiny ocean organisms—plankton—responded during significant ancient warming events and contrasts this with predictions for our future.
The findings are alarming: plankton are unable to adapt to the unprecedented speed of current temperature increases, jeopardizing vast marine ecosystems, including fish that depend on these organisms for survival.
Dr. Rui Ying, the lead author and a PhD student in marine ecology at the University of Bristol, emphasized the urgency of the situation. He stated that even under conservative climate projections predicting a 2°C rise, it is evident that plankton cannot keep pace with the rapid warming we are experiencing, which shows no signs of slowing down.
“Plankton are the lifeblood of the oceans, supporting the marine food web and carbon storage. If their existence is endangered, it will present an unprecedented threat, disrupting the whole marine ecosystem with devastating wide-reaching consequences for marine life and also human food supplies.”
To arrive at this conclusion, the researchers created an innovative model that analyzed plankton behavior from 21,000 years ago during the last Ice Age alongside predictions for future climate scenarios. By focusing on a resilient plankton group that has endured through the ages, their groundbreaking work delivers unprecedented insights with remarkable accuracy.
“The past is often considered key to understanding what the world could look like in the future. Geological records showed that plankton previously relocated away from the warmer oceans to survive,” Dr Ying said. “But using the same model of ecology and climate, projections showed the current and future rate of warming was too great for this to be possible again, potentially wiping out the precious organisms.”
According to the Paris Agreement, 196 nations pledged to limit global temperature increases to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with a goal of capping it at 1.5°C. Alarmingly, a recent United Nations report warned that without more vigorous action to reduce carbon emissions, the world could heat up by as much as 3.1°C.
Co-author Daniela Schmidt, a Professor of Earth Sciences at the University of Bristol, is a highly regarded marine ecologist who has led several reports for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Journal reference:
- Rui Ying et al. Past foraminiferal acclimatization capacity is limited during future warming. Nature, 2024; DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-08029-0
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