@blakeshaffer.bsky.social Mar 6, 2026:
A little thread on Canada-US electricity trade, looking at the 4 largest electricity trading partners: BC, MB, ON, QC
A rare (first time?) occurrence: In 2025 all 3 big hydro provinces (BC, MB, QC) were *net importers*
Ontario continues to massively export power.
Going back a few years, can see the persistence of BC’s drought (will it end this year?) showing 3 years in a row of net imports. QC’s drought really shows up in the last 2 years.
I doubt the drought will end. Snow pack is scary low; human pollution, population and corresponding climate chaos keeps rising faster and faster; extreme heat, drought and wildfires are forecast to keep escalating also as Carney and his thugs, notably his special Nazi pal, Smith, ramp up deregulated fossil fuel pollution while killing mitigationsm (and UNDRIP).
But despite the being net importers in 2025, BC and Manitoba were also large *receivers* of net revenue! They bought more than they sold *and* collected money for doing so. QC too, was only barely cash flow negative despite large imports. ON brought in nearly $1B from export sales.
Going back a few years, only 2023 left BC in a net payable position, despite being large buyers of energy. It speaks to the flexibility of reservoir hydro systems to pick and choose when they buy, and still opportunistically sell.
Another way to showcase hydro’s flexibility is by their average export and import prices. All 3 hydro provinces consistently sell at prices significantly greater than their buy price. ON is a big seller, but inflexibly so. Hence the weaker export price.
Going back 5 years, we consistently see this flexibility on display with hydro provinces always* (except 2022 in QC) selling greater than their buy price.
If you want to take a closer look at some provinces, let’s start with BC: Last year BC imported 10TWh of electricity — a very large amount! But at a price of C$46/MWh (4.6c/kWh) — a very cheap price. Imports aren’t a bad thing when they’re so cheap…They are bad, because the imports are coming from mass murdering (Palestine, Iran, Venezuela, Lebanon, next Cuba, … Israel wouldn’t be genocidal if it had no American $billions and bombs) Pedophile Rapist Nazi USA, a country that has threatened and keeps threatening Canada. American products, including electricity, we are supposed to be boycotting. And, how is the American imported electricity produced? Coal? Frac’d gas? Nuclear? Hydro?
Heading east to Manitoba: The big drop in net revenue, going from ~$800MM 4 years ago, to $500MM in 2024, to only $100MM last year will no doubt hurt the crown’s books. They’ll be praying for rain in some exec suites in winnipeg, i suspect.
Ontario is pretty stable: they sell. But the prices received are at the whim of neighbouring markets. The less-flexible Ontario system simply takes what it gets.
Lastly, la belle province: Quebec The drought hit hard, with the province becoming a net importer in 2025. Net revenues for this important crown corp also tumbled, falling from $1.3 billion in 2023 to essentially $0 last year. C’est pas bon!
