@adamemedia1:
Trump SURRENDERED to Iran.
That’s what happened.
@BY1959:
The Art of the Squeal.
@harikunzru.bsky.social:
I may only be a novelist who doesn’t get out much, but I know that if you win a war, you don’t have to pay the loser $300bn
Iran must have copies of the Epstein files and videos.
@phillipspobrien.bsky.social:
So Trump has spent the last 24 hours saying that dealing with the Iranian government is great, saying Iran can keep its missiles, saying how he wants people to invest in Iran. In other words, he is now strongly helping one of Putin’s closest allies.
Funny how that turned out.
Hi All, we now have an official text of the USA-Iran MOU from the US point of view. It is extraordinary. The US is in a far weaker position than before it started this war fewer than four months ago. Here is a free, blow-by-blow description why.
@capitalistfool.bsky.social:
After signing a surrender like this, most regimes relying on public support would collapse.
@smullins3000.bsky.social:
Fortunately for Trump he has the corporate media there to try to prop him up.
Midweek Update #15: The MOU Is Out by Phillips P. OBrien, Jun 17, 2026, Phillips’s Newsletter
Hi all,
Well, we finally have a version of the USA-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that the US government is saying is official. Here is a link to the text in a CNN article. I felt it was important to wait for this official text to write an analysis, because jumping to definite conclusions without it would leave one a hostage to fortune. In some ways, though, it was foolish to wait. From what we now know, the MOU is almost word for word what the Iranian government has been saying for weeks. There is nothing surprising in it, as the Iranians have made it clear that they were going to get what they wanted from Trump. And they certainly did.
Indeed, the really depressing thing is that, with the actual text released, it is impossible to deny that it has been the US Government that has been lying constantly about what they were going to demand from the Iranian government. The USG has deceived more than the IRGC. What a world we live in.
In fact, just going through the MOU text, it is arguable that the Iranians ended up doing even better than they thought they would weeks earlier—and the US made even more concessions than expected. The best way to see this is to go through the actual key MOU clauses and highlight parts of them with commentary. Beware, the end result is not pretty. You might even want to look away.
Key MOU Clauses And Commentary
- 1 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war are signing this MOU to declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph.
Commentary: The key thing here is that the US has made it perfectly clear that it expects Israel to end its war in Lebanon, and therefore that the US wants attacks on Hezbollah to stop. This was a major Iranian goal and they have achieved it. It is important to see that ending the fighting in Lebanon as a US commitment is made twice here.
- 2 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.
Commentary: Regime change is now permanently out as a US policy. The US is now pledged to respect the internal power of the IRGC. Remember, when the bombing started, regime change was a key victory condition for Trump.
- 4 — Immediately upon the signing of this MOU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.
Commentary: The last sentence is extraordinary. This seems to pledge the USA to remove its forces from near Iran after the deal. “Proximity” is not defined, but that would have to take in a number of close US partners in the Gulf. The US is now allowing Iran to have a major say in where US forces can be deployed.
- 5 — Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.
Commentary: Iran pledges not to “charge” shipping in the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days (though it is worth noting that Iran said yesterday that they might still levy “fees”. The important thing is that Iran is clearly saying that with Oman it can determine the future of traffic in the strait and Iran has in no way given up its ability to change tolls. This represents a major Iranian increase in authority.
- 6 — The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.
Commentary: Do you know what this is? It is the US promising to “undertake” organizing a plan for reparations to pay back Iran for all the damage that US bombing caused. The US is not committing to give a definite amount itself, but the US is also not ruling out the possibility that a great deal of US money will go to Iran.
- 7 — The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned, and expressed their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
Commentary: Pretty self-explanatory. The US is pledging to end “ALL TYPES” of sanctions on Iran and they mean it. Iran obviously wanted this point emphasized and included the second part which simply restates the commitment.
- 8 — The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with the minimum methodology to be down blended on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned. They express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
Commentary: This is the key political point for Trump. He gets Iran to say what it has been saying for decades: that it does not want to get nuclear weapons. It will be spun as some Iranian concession, but it is hard to see how that is. There is nothing concrete here about Iran agreeing to hand over anything to the USA, merely sentences that will postpone action. The US is clearly accepting the fact that Iran will have some kind of nuclear program going forward as it pledges to discuss enrichment.
- 9 — Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.
Commentary: Just to reinforce the point: Iran can keep its present nuclear program as is. It is an notable indication of Iran digging in its heels on this after clause 8.
- 10 — The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MOU and until the termination of sanctions, US Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.
Commentary: A massive win for Iran. As soon as the MOU is signed the US is basically suspending all sanctions that have been hampering Iran from selling oil for years and years. Iran can now trade freely without any threat from the US when it comes to its oil and financial infrastructure. A clear sign that all sanctions will be over soon.
- 11 — The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MOU. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.
Commentary: The interesting word here is “implementation”. It is not entirely clear what that means—it might mean immediately upon signing or it might not. If it means upon signing, the USA is handing back to Iran all the frozen assets under its control. This is a tricky thing to calculate. There are somewhere between $50 billion and $100 billion of frozen Iranian assets in different holdings, but the US does not definitively control most of this. Some stories are saying that $12 billion of this will be handed over immediately. Long story short—Iran will get billions very soon.
- 14 — The final deal will be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution.
Commentary: The Iranians are basically trying to go to the UN Security Council to get endorsement for all this. Remember that their allies, Russia and China, have veto power. It will be to try and compel the USA not to return to using military power against them in the future.
Conclusion
The US has signed up to a deal which puts it in a far worse strategic position than it was in on February 27, 2026 (the day before the bombing started). It is not returning to the status quo ante: it is creating an entirely new, and much weaker, status quo (for the USA).
The USA is pledging to respect the Iranian regime, immediately restore some funding to it, immediately allow the Iranian regime to start trading oil freely, and not to interfere with its present nuclear capabilities. Moreover, the USA is tacitly recognizing that Iran will control shipping in the Strait (with Oman) going forward and has not ruled out the ability of Iran and Oman to charge tolls after 60 days.
In the near future, the US is pledging to help organize a massive reparations program for Iran, to pull back American forces from the vicinity of Iran, to end all sanctions on Iran, and to pledge its commitment to all of this with a UN Security Council Resolution.
And what has the US gotten in return?
Well, it has gotten a temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz (under significantly worse conditions than existed on February 27, 2026) and a restatement of a nuclear pledge that Iran has made for years and years.
It is hard to grasp just how humiliating this is for the USA (and Israel). They chose to start this war after great preparation, they used their most advanced technology, and they used up massive military stocks in bombing Iran for six weeks.
And they are in a much worse situation.
I will write soon trying to put this into some historical and geopolitical context, but for now, the MOU speaks more eloquently and decisively about American decline than I can manage at this time.
***
I doubt Nazi USA will ever come clean on how many Americans Trump murdered in Iran and neighbouring USA bases because of his ego, stupidity and lust for a Nobel Peace Prize.
@dickmac999.bsky.social:
Have we ever had a more humiliating defeat than Trump’s illegal attacks on Iran?
@magatzapper.bsky.social:
They’re frantically trying to spin it as a win. Completely insane.
Nathalie Farman-Farma:
It is important to mention in this equation: the loss of life in Iran and Lebanon, the damage done to Iranian infrastructure, military but mainly civilian (bridges, water supplies, schools & hospitals deliberately targeted), as well as the historical sites, the agricultural land and the lasting pollution. I doubt many Iranians or Lebanese feel this is a win.
Phillips P. OBrien:
I understand what you are saying. The Iranian people are the biggest losers in this.
George Phillies:
The agreement is an overt surrender in what turned out to be a limited war. Losing wars is a bad habit.
Phillips P. OBrien:
Overt surrender indeed
Robot Bender:
“The Art of the Deal,” my shiny metal ass
Phillips P. OBrien:
The Iranians will probably publish a how-to-negotiate book soon…
Carol Gamm:
It’s a Trump disaster. Death and destruction for nothing. He’s not concerned. He is making plenty of money and working to destroy our elections.
Phillips P. OBrien:
Agree, he only cares about his reputationand stealing money from the poor and breaking the law whenever he wants, and raping and torturing kids, and always getting away with it (like rape religions do). People are a distraction
Judy Guenther:
Yet he will crow about what a great negotiator he is and how he established peace (ignoring that all of this started because of him). Guess that means he’ll think he should be a peace prize. It’s horrible.
Phillips P. OBrien:
He might even get Vance to nominate him for the peace prize.
John S.:
The MOU clearly references “war”. I thought this wasn’t a war?
Now what is going to be happening in Cuba and Greenland?
Refer also to:
