@rahmstorf.bsky.social Nov 11, 2026:
This is what the daily death numbers in Germany looked like this summer. On June 28th 5000 people died, normal is 2500. On the 27th it was 41.8°C, on the 28th it was 41.7°C. At 42 degrees, protein clots in our blood. What would happen in politics and the media if some other event caused 2,500 deaths in one day?
Across Europe, this summer caused around 50,000 heat deaths, including 16,000 in Germany. None of this is new or surprising. Extreme heat kills! The curve is reminiscent of France in the summer of 2003. Since then, the effects of heat on the death rate have been extensively researched.
Extreme heat is increasing sharply due to global warming, and with it the number of deaths! The map shows the increase in heat mortality in Europe from one decade to the next. Study from the top medical journal, The Lancet:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(24)00055-0/fulltext
And even if more people die in winter than in summer for various reasons (a popular climate denier argument), overall mortality increases as the climate warms. Because the mortality rate increases much more steeply towards the warm end (red) than towards the cold end (blue).
